Everyone has been up in arms for the past few days due to a massive 25% skid in Games Workshop’s stock. After all the reading of blogs, Tweets, and Facebook rants, I myself have come to a conclusion. So fucking what?
Don’t get me wrong, we all know I am not above giving the folks in Nottingham a kick in the teeth when they deserve it. But just because a bunch of speculators and bean counters have determined that overnight the $300M company is somehow only worth $225M due to a relatively small decline in sales, doesn’t mean it’s so. I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again… Chicken Little… the sky is NOT falling.
Look, this sort of thing happens all the time in the stock markets. People chasing short term gains invest in companies when they are low, and get out when they are high. It’s a simple concept. Once the GW stock started to drop, all the speculators got out as fast as they could, causing the drop to continue. Remember, nothing REALLY happened on that day. A report was read, and people made their own conclusions. Yes, a stock price dropped, but let’s look at the actual facts.
The value of Games Workshop’s incredible intellectual property did not change. Not at all. Anyone who thinks otherwise isn’t looking at the big picture. None of the fans of the games are now less likely to make a game or model purchase due to a stock price. All of the inventory in the warehouses… their prices didn’t change a penny. If Games Workshop owns real estate… it’s value didn’t decline. A stock market price is an abstraction, and not really based on hard fact, only public perception. Personally, the way I look at it, if I was looking to do a hostile takeover of Games Workshop, now is the time, basically due to the short sight of others, that the company is ON SALE.
Finally, comparing the 6 months at the end of 2013 with the 6 months at the end of 2012 is completely unfair and frankly asinine to anyone who knows the company and the product. 2012, you have the launch of 6th edition, and the Dark Vengeance box set. 2013, from July to December, you have Apocalypse and Codex: Space Marines. So you go from 2012 where you have a new BRB, which every player buys, and an introductory box set, which a lot of people buy, and a lot of people buy multiples of, to a fringe rulebook in 2013, and a very popular Codex, which was likely bought by half of the players. Personally, I’m shocked sales were only down 12% between these two periods.
So there you have it folks. My 2 cents worth. But what do I know, I’m just an Ork. 🙂